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Paris FC vs Lyon

Fri 11 Sep 2026, 22:00 UTC · Round 4 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Paris FC win: 28.3%

Draw: 28.8%

Lyon win: 42.9%

Predicted: Lyon

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 52.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.56

More corners: Paris FC (53.8% home / 46.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lyon

Yes

Probability Lyon wins or draws: 63.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Lyon Clearest lean of the available outcomes (43% vs next-best 29%). (43.0% model probability) Low

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lyon win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (63.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.